Jach's personal blog

(Largely containing a mind-dump to myselves: past, present, and future)
Current favorite quote: "Supposedly smart people are weirdly ignorant of Bayes' Rule." William B Vogt, 2010

Winning is fun

I took a bet recently, it was: "The U.S. unemployment rate will be below 8.0% for September 2012" I bet 0.10 bitcoins in favor of the statement, others bet more against, and so I ended up winning 1.078 bitcoins when the result was known, which is a 978% profit.

Why did I bet the way I did? Because I realize it's pretty much the last real month to put out something in favor of the President, and the existence of Shadow Stats is evidence that the number can be more-or-less whatever those in power want it to be, and those in power are happy with Obama. It was fun to win. So I wasn't very surprised when the results came back.

Was I overconfident? Probably. I'll know better when other bets come around for which I have similar degrees of evidence, and then I can learn just how strong the evidence is.

Posted on 2012-10-08 by Jach

Tags: fodder, personal


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